Let me get the personal financial status out of the way first: the inflationary trend has been partially offset by the refund of over-taxation by both the provincial and federal governments this year.
My carbon tax payback did not quite meet the promise of the feds unless I fell into that 20% of the population who did not get back more than I paid on the Green / Carbon Reduction / Sequestering / and Buildings refund that had a net-green environmental footprint like the new ice pads. I had expectations.
However, in a surprise election refunding program by both Mr Ford and Mr Trudeau, a total $450 has been entered in the books as an accrued potential payment pending. It is neat how governments can borrow money from future earnings, sort of like a mortgage, I guess, expecting future generations (yet unborn) to pay both the principal and interest for us.
My banker, on the other hand, says no, I cannot do this – it is the principle of the thing. It is unfortunate that there is no municipal election next year, or we could have expected a small stipend from Peter.
At the municipal level, the books are balanced early in the next year, but we already know that we cannot run a deficit – it’s the law – but how we do the accruals, deferrals, encumbrances, and due to/from the Reserve funds is a function of how much money is left in the coffers after adjustments. If you don’t follow this, ask Don Rennick, because I get confused when they start comparing mill rates to the anticipated MPAC value adjustments based on market value before and after Covid.
The economic outlook at the provincial level is cloudy. Duggy (nickname changed from Dougie because of his recent penchant for digging tunnels) still wants to run a road through the Greenbelt but may be satisfied with buying back the 407-toll road. This may cost us more money than buying out the beer contract.
Then there is that spa thing going on with Ontario Science Place on the lakeshore – that was not very well thought out, according to the auditor. She could find herself unemployed if she is not careful.
Added to the uncertainty of the bottom line in the next fiscal year or two are the deals made with the EV battery/car companies to make the powerplants in southern Ontario from metals that may be in northern Ontario. Duggy believed Justin when said all passenger vehicles must be EVs by 2035 or was that 2032 – the year we meet our NATO commitments? These target dates keep moving like CFL goalposts in a snowstorm.
This brings me to the saddest part of my message about finances: the Federal Government. In the spring of 2024, Chrystia Freeland promised that they would keep the deficit around 40 billion dollars – give or take a billion. There were a few small surprises like the Bank of Canada raising its rates; the grocery stores raising prices which were inflationary; the NDP demanding drug and dental plans as the cost of their support for the Liberals; the expense of shipping our used and near-obsolete military equipment to Ukraine; carpentry courses for MPs to meet the housing crisis; vote-bribery cheques could add another 6 billion; trips to Mar-a-Lago; Embassy offices in Alaska and Greenland; on and on.
The Finance Minister will tell us that they, the Liberal government, have been doing all the right things and they will continue to hold the course to prove it to us. The grocery magnates assured them that prices would fall on their own as soon as hell froze over or the Leafs won the cup. Ms Freeland will assure us that Donald will come to his senses before January 20 and drop that silly idea of a tariff on Canadian goods. She knows the Donald and how he works: he wrote it in his book, which she is going to read soon.
So let us circle back to our personal financial outlook. (Running around in circles always takes you back to the origin of the venture). Our PM repeats, ad nauseum, that we are doing the best of all G7 countries, in whatever the discussion involves, but he fails to mention how poorly they are performing – the best of the worst is hardly a virtue. Following the PM’s analogy, we must be doing okay. You cannot afford the high-priced mushrooms for your steak? – not to worry – some people cannot afford hamburgers in the G7 countries. Maybe even in our town.
As many challenges as there are with all levels of our governments as they diddle around with our money, things could be worse. We could be bankrupt and not have all the things our governments provide for us: things that we can only afford collectively, not on our own. The wait times at the ER or a clinic may seem intolerable, but we at least have a hospital and clinics to attend when we need help. There may be a cost-of-food crisis, but we do have Food Banks and Soup Kitchens, charity organizations, and citizens who are willing to share what they have with others. We may grumble about education, but it is available to all. We complain, but we do have the right to assemble and protest. Life is good here in Canada.
So, when you are doing your personal economic outlook for 2025, do not forget to include your investments in local, provincial, and federal programs that are making life so good for you and yours. Oh, and if your investment portfolio is worth more than $500,000 there is a fellow on TV who will help you whittle that down to a manageable size. Just saying.
Nota Bene: This forecast is only valid until January 20, 2025
