The federal Liberal leadership race is a two-way contest between Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney with Carney somewhat in the lead, if a Village Media online poll with over 29,000 participants is anything to go by.
The choices in the poll reflect the leading leadership candidates as of January 9. (We don't like to change polls after they're posted.)
Since the poll was posted, Anand, Champagne, Clark, Fraser and Joly have said that they aren't seeking the party leadership, and in some cases that they are planning to leave Parliament.
Here is the full poll, now a bit overtaken by events.
Following that, we're going to show you a version of the poll that shows only votes for Freeland, Carney and none of the above. The larger the empty space at the end of the line, the larger the support for Liberal candidates who have now dropped out.
Men and women support Carney more or less equally. Men are more likely to support 'none of the above,' which as we'll see tends to imply support for another party, probably the Conservatives, while women are more likely to support Carney.
Conservative and PPC supporters are far more likely to click 'none of the above,' while Greens and New Democrats are more likely to be positive about Carney or Freeland, which may imply that they're not unwilling to vote Liberal under the right conditions.
The line in the poll that might be slightly predictive of the outcome - bearing in mind that our readers are all in Ontario, or normally in Ontario - is the one for Liberals, at the bottom. This has Carney strongly in the lead.
Consistent with that graph, voters on the right and centre-right are more likely to choose 'none of the above,' implying that they are not open to any possible Liberal candidate. Centrist voters are more of a surprise, though: I'm not sure how to interpret that.
This is one of the more striking graphs. It parallels other polls showing that older voters are more predisposed to voting Liberal than younger ones.
There is perhaps surprisingly little connection to income:
