A new report from the Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO) offers dire warnings of a doubling in the homelessness crisis. In Northern Ontario, homelessness has risen by an estimated 204 per cent since 2016, four times faster than in the south.
But it appears their recommendations align well with Greater Sudbury’s Roadmap to End Homelessness by 2030, unanimously approved by city council in May 2024.
While the price tag of the roadmap is $350 million, the report states municipal spending on homelessness and housing programs has skyrocketed in Ontario since 2020, growing to more than $2.1 billion in 2024.
Released on Jan. 8, the report states the province is “at a tipping point in its homelessness crisis,” and the reasons why too few people are exiting homelessness are clear: “Ontario does not have enough housing spaces, and it does not have the right mix of spaces.”
That issue is central to Sudbury’s roadmap, the need for more housing and more housing for single people (less for families) but also, the need to prevent people from becoming homeless in the first place.
Part of that is the push for an increase in social housing, which is rent-geared-to-income or deep-core housing. While affordable housing has many definitions — the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation considers 80 per cent of market rent to be affordable — the needs of Sudbury’s homeless population depend on rent allocations from income supplements like Ontario Works or Ontario Disability.
In fact, 79 per cent of the people on the City’s By-Name List, which totalled 292 on Jan.9, are on social assistance.
The AMO report not only discusses the homelessness issue from a provincial perspective but also focuses on the specific challenges that the crisis in the North brings.
The report notes that 20 per cent of the projected $11 billion in recommendations they suggest is earmarked for Northern Ontario.
Not only is homelessness growing across Ontario, with the report projecting that it even under a steady economic scenario, homelessness could double over the next ten years to almost 300,000 people (in a province with a population of 13.6 million) but in Northern Ontario alone, by 2035, homelessness in the North could climb to between 10,674 and 26,633 people, depending on the economic conditions.
“These figures highlight northern communities’ acute vulnerabilities, which are driven by geographic isolation, limited infrastructure, and systemic inequities,” reads the report.
By the numbers
The numbers don’t get better from there. In northern regions, the number of people experiencing chronic homelessness has risen sharply, nearly doubling from 1,204 people in 2022 to an estimated 2,305 in 2024.
At the same time, the total number of people experiencing known homelessness in these regions grew from 3,615 to 5,377, an increase of 49 per cent.
That means that more people overall are becoming homeless in northern regions but chronic homelessness — the number of people experiencing long-term homelessness — is growing even faster, states the report.
By 2024, chronic homelessness accounted for 43 per cent of all known homelessness in the north, up from 33 per cent in 2022.
“This trend reflects the acute challenges faced by northern communities, where resources and infrastructure to address long-term homelessness are often limited,” notes the report.
The report also states that almost 50 per cent of the chronic homeless population in some communities are Indigenous, “reflecting the enduring effects of colonialism.”
The challenge is greater in the smaller northern communities, which often lack shelters, transitional housing, or specialized support, forcing individuals and families to either travel long distances to service hubs or remain in precarious situations.
Specialized support for mental health, substance use, and complex needs is scarce in smaller communities as well, creating significant barriers to housing stability, states the report.
There is also more government spending on emergency shelters rather than long-term support. “The spending distribution across Ontario’s homelessness programs reflects the emphasis on crisis response in the system,” states the report.
That, and, per the report, “the reasons why too few people are exiting homelessness are clear: Ontario does not have enough housing spaces, and it does not have the right mix of spaces.”
The solution
The AMO, as part of their report, also offered suggestions for overcoming the crisis, based on their modelled projections with both stable and unsteady economic conditions.
Their plan, and the $11 billion price tag, is similar to the Greater Sudbury roadmap’s four pillars: Prevention (homelessness is rare); Rapid re-housing (homelessness is brief); Supportive housing and wrap-around services (homelessness is non-recurring), and; System-level recommendations (engaging other partners for shared advocacy and system planning).
The roadmap’s aim is for Sudbury to be at what’s known as “functional zero” homelessness by 2030. Functional zero does not mean the complete absence of homelessness, but rather, a system that ensures homelessness is rare, brief and non-recurring. That, and the number of people experiencing homelessness (as denoted by the By-Name List) is three or fewer for a period of three months.
The AMO report's statement about over-reliance on emergency shelter spaces is tackled in the Sudbury roadmap promoting the change of some spaces to long-term beds. Though there would still be emergency beds for the people who need them at the last minute, at the same time, there would be a chance for some to come back to the same bed and the same people each night.
But there are challenges.
Not only those facing the North but all Ontarians as the AMO states, their model doesn’t quite work without investment in the health-care system, justice system, immigration and settlement systems, education system and financial support systems like poverty reduction initiatives and income stabilization programs, to prevent people from becoming homeless.
“Building capacity is critical, but it is not enough to achieve long-term success in reducing homelessness. Without substantial investments in direct service provision — particularly in substance use and mental health supports within the healthcare system — the true gains from the recommended $11-billion investment in housing and homelessness programs will not be fully realized,” reads the report.
“Minimizing negative exits and ensuring people do not cycle back into the system requires a coordinated, multi-system effort that addresses the broader social determinants of homelessness.”
But also, the AMO’s suggestions and the roadmap are contingent on funding from upper levels of government.
As Raymond Landry, manager of housing for the Homelessness Network told Sudbury.com in an interview just after the city’s roadmap was announced the dependence on funding from three levels is “the stopper in all of this.”
“We need the provincial government to show up and continue investing more and more in treatment beds, in community-based counseling and interventions, and in direct support to those who are suffering through the opioid crisis,” he said. “Including a safe injection site and harm reduction space,” referring to the now closed supervised injection site and defunded harm reduction programs in Sudbury.
In their report, the AMO “urges provincial and federal governments to take significant, long-term action on affordable housing, mental health and addictions services, and income supports to fix homelessness to improve communities’ economic foundations and quality of life.”
Jenny Lamothe covers vulnerable and marginalized communities for Sudbury.com.
