To the editor:
As far as Canadian constitutional law and constitutional prerogatives are concerned, Justin Trudeau is under no obligation to relinquish control of his Prime Minister's office to Mark Carney, even though Carney has been elected Leader of the Liberal Party.
Sure, Trudeau became Prime Minister when he was the head of the party with the most seats in the House of Commons, but that does not obligate him to resign the Prime Ministership when a new Liberal leader is elected, because that Leader is not automatically Prime Minister.
Furthermore, only Justin Trudeau has shown he has the confidence of the House, not Mark Carney. Trudeau, as Prime Minister, he has the historical Prime Minister's Prerogative to call an election at a time of his choosing, and to remain Prime Minister until such time as he loses the confidence of the House as expressed through a vote on confidence matters.
There are only a few exceptions to this Prerogative, such as when during the King-Byng Affair, when Mackenzie King delayed the sitting of the House for a few months after an election that he lost, for such a long time as to then ask the Governor General to call an election before such a confidence vote could be held.
The Governor General ruled that a confidence vote should take place at a reasonable time right after an election has been completed. Yet the question of what happens when a Prime Minister resigns the Leadership of his Party but not his Prime Ministerial Office, has never been resolved by the Governor General as the situation is unprecedented.
Still, the Prime Minister is not the individual whose party has the most seats in the House of Commons, but is the individual who a majority of MPs give their confidence vote in favour of.
This means the Prime Minister could simply ask that people who are loyal to him to stay with his team, group or caucus, however you wish to identify Trudeau supporters in parliament.
Naturally, the cabinet will want to be on Trudeau's side, so there are 20 MPs right there, plus another 10-20 sycophants who would only be too happy to replace those Ministers if the opportunity would arise. So Trudeau could potentially have a caucus of 30 individuals.
Such a Caucus may or may not have to identify as a separate political party, either inside the House of Commons or outside. Inside Parliament, a group could theoretically splinter off from the Liberal to form a legislative caucus, like Chuch Strahl did when he led a group of "Democratic Representation Caucus" MPs to splinter from the Canadian Alliance in 2001. Or, they could keep calling themselves Liberal in the House of Commons, although I'm not sure who controls the party labels in Parliament.
Outside of Parliament, Liberals loyal to Prime Minister Trudeau could theoretically run as Liberals in the election if the Liberal party would allow such individuals to be nominated. If they won their election, the situation would be similar to when the Progressive Party elected many MPs in the 1920s, but then an informal alliance of some of them known as the "Ginger Group" sprung up.
Even if the Liberal Party did not permit those loyal to Trudeau (and giving their confidence votes to him) to run as candidates, Trudeau is under no obligation to change the individuals currently in cabinet, because there is no obligation for Ministers to be MPs.
Potentially his entire cabinet could be comprised of defeated MPs. In which case, if he were pragmatic, he could simply throw them all out and replace them with Liberal MPs who would pledge their confidence vote to him, as well as other parties. As long as he can squeak out a majority in a parliamentary vote, he could invite as many MPs as he wishes into his tent. He could balloon his Ministers to 50, 60, the sky is the limit. There is also no obligation for a Minister to also be a member of the cabinet, such that he could balloon those MPs with a Ministerial portfolio but not encumber his cabinet table.
If Trudeau were to call an election immediately, he would put the media networks in a tailspin because it would be hard to say who would represent the Liberal Party in the Debates. Sure Mark Carney is their Leader, but Trudeau is the Liberal Party Prime Minister.
Furthermore, if Trudeau recalled Parliament to sit immediately without resigning his spot, and if he then forced a confidence vote, he would put himself in an amazing position. If a majority of MPs put confidence in him, he can tell the Governor General that he will delay the "transition" to Mark Carney until a non-specific time.
And then, if they defeat him, he could simply go to an election. Although Carney will still be the Federal Leader of the Liberal Party, a win by the Liberal Party would also be seen as another mandate for Trudeau as Prime Minister. So again, he can forestall his resignation. It would then be a question of, is Mark Carney going to want to publicly pull the plug on Justin Trudeau, and would that mean that Carney would then be able to show he has confidence in the House of Commons, or would that opportunity skip Carney because he is a Liberal like Trudeau, and go straight to Pollievre?
So again, the question is, if an election were called with Trudeau still Prime Minister and Carney the Leader of the Liberal Party, would a majority of MPs after that election place confidence in Trudeau?
If Trudeau can offer enough to Liberal, as well as the other parties, maybe he can squeak out a majority of MPs. Would Liberals stand to oppose confidence in Trudeau?
In the 2021 federal election, the Liberals had 155 seats and the Conservatives had 119 seats, while the NDP had 24 seats, the Bloc 32 seats, and the Greens 2 seats. So there were 219 votes for Trudeau on confidence matters and only 119 for the conservatives. That means Trudeau could afford to lose 100 abstaining Liberals or 50 Liberals actively voting non-confidence in a Trudeau government post-election if the other parties voted for confidence in Trudeau.
I think Trudeau needs to fight to win those Liberal MPs, but the battle is not lost, and he should not resign. He should stall the transition by calling an election or recalling parliament and seeking to win or lose a confidence vote.
Robert Nelly
North Bay
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