The year just ended was crazy busy for immigration, both nationally and locally. And that is the catalyst for several changes we will see this year.
We saw record numbers of permanent and temporary residents nationally and locally. In my little practice, I met 140 new clients in 2023, compared to 73 in 2022 (yes, that’s almost double the number), 46 in 2021, and 70 in 2020. COVID affected numbers.
My prediction is we will not see numbers in 2024 comparable to 2023.
Federal immigration Minister Marc Miller is making changes that will reduce the temporary resident numbers, reacting to polls that show support for immigration has declined among Canadian voters, with many tying immigration, rightly or wrongly, to increased housing prices.
Permanent resident numbers are not the issue. Most people who will become permanent residents this year and in the next couple of years are already here as students or temporary foreign workers.
The PR target for last year was 465,000 and it is being bumped to 485,000 for 2024, 500,000 for 2025 and then staying at that number for 2026.
The latest estimate of the number of non-permanent residents in Canada is 2.2 million. The vast majority are international students and temporary foreign workers, with those waiting for refugee status hearings also part of the total.
International students increasingly are using Canadian studies as a path to permanent residence, and the government intends to stem the flow from that sector.
One new measure is that instead of having to prove they have at least $10,000 in the bank or GICs, the amount has doubled to $20,635. That alone will result in fewer numbers. That figure is in addition to their first-year tuition and travel costs.
Another factor is the number of hours students will be allowed to work off-campus. It has been 20 hours per week for years but was increased to 40 hours due to labour shortages.
That will end on April 30. The minister has said the number of hours allowed will drop to somewhere between 20 and 40. It could be 30, 25, or 20. We don’t know yet.
Yet a third factor is the federal government’s plan to limit the number of study permit approvals.
The number will be “significantly” reduced, Minister Miller told a news conference on December 7, saying “enough is enough.”
He said some post-secondary institutions, which he compared to “puppy mills,” have to be reined in. He was most likely referring to private colleges in Ontario, some of which have partnerships with the province’s public colleges.
The provinces have control over education, but the federal government approves study permits for international students. Expect some pushback from the post-secondary sector.
What all this means is local employers will have more difficulty finding part-time workers. They just might have to raise wages to find permanent residents or Canadian citizens to fill the positions.
Another major change that will affect North Bay and area is the future of the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot program.
Officially, application intake will end in February, with applicants having until August to submit their applications for PR to the federal government. Unofficially, Minister Miller, whom Parliament Hill reporters who know him say is very bright and hard-working, said at a November news conference in Ottawa that RNIP will not only continue but be expanded to other municipalities.
Since then, there have been no further announcements, but expect something before the end of February. RNIP is driving local immigration and an increase in the quota for the North Bay area from 250 in 2023 would be welcome. That will move graduating international students from Canadore College and Nipissing University from temporary to permanent resident status.
Making RNIP a permanent program makes good economic sense, as it has demonstrated the ability to attract skilled workers away from the major cities. Exactly what it was intended to do.
Editor’s Note: Don Curry is a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant living in North Bay and a member of Bay Today’s community advisory committee.
