This month may mark a turning point in the war in Ukraine, though at the moment it's hard to tell in which direction.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has come and gone from Washington, with the question of further U.S. support for Ukraine unresolved.
In Europe, pro-Russian Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban vetoed a €50 billion ($72 billion) European Union aid package for Ukraine, and in Moscow Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a bullish, uncompromising speech on the war.
And in Canada, the federal Conservatives seemed to many to be cooling on their former support for Ukraine, as party leader Pierre Poilievre appeared to channel Neville Chamberlain by referring dismissively to Ukraine as a “far away foreign land” in the House of Commons. (In response to criticism, Conservative foreign affairs critic Michael Chong defended his party's past support for Ukraine.)
We ran two online polls this week on Ukraine:
- What should the West's goal be with regard to Ukraine?
- If it was necessary, to save Ukraine from defeat, would you approve of the direct involvement of NATO troops, including Canadians, in the conflict?
Overwhelmingly, you said that the West should support Ukraine in regaining all of its national territory, rather than wanting it to seek a territorial compromise with Russia.
By a smaller but still very strong margin, you were willing to send Canadian troops, if it was necessary to save Ukraine from defeat by the Russians:
Women were more likely to take a pro-Ukrainian, or hawkish position:
Older readers were much more open to sending troops:
Ontario PC voters were much more likely to oppose the idea:
As with many of our polls, there isn't an obvious north/south or urban/rural difference:
The two polls, cross-referenced with each other, have a logical relationship. The two minority positions seem to be (a) that Ukraine should regain all of its national territory but Canadian troops should not be involved in any scenario, and (b) that Ukraine should compromise on territory, but Canada and the rest of NATO should intervene if they faced further defeat:
Readers will know by now that I like to mash up apparently unrelated polls to try to find clusters of opinions or behaviours.
This poll doesn't seem to lend itself to that, possibly because the right and centre-right are very internally divided on Ukraine, and that throws a crowbar into the way tribes often line up in our polling.
Readers who are open to Canadian intervention in Ukraine are also more likely to:
- Regularly attend religious services
- Say they would vote to keep the monarchy in a referendum
- Say they would vote to get rid of the separate school system in a referendum
- Not have tattoos, and have no plans to get any
- Say that legalizing cannabis was the right decision
- Want their next car to be an EV or hybrid
