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Greater Sudbury, North Bay and Thunder Bay have all experienced population growth since 2016, according to the 2021 Census and analysis shows at least part of the growth is due to factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as remote work and out-migration from larger centres.
Looking at the census subdivision data of each of the five largest urban centres in northern Ontario (excluding surrounding areas), Greater Sudbury witnessed the biggest bump in population, up 2.8 per cent to 166,004 in 2021 from 161,531 in 2016. Greater Sudbury's population also rose 0.8 per cent in 2016, up from 160,274 in 2011. Greater Sudbury is the 15th most populous city in Ontario.
See related: 2021 Census: Population rising in North Bay
In 2021, North Bay recorded the second-largest population growth of the five northern centres, rising 2.2 per cent to 52,662 up from 51,553 in 2016. North Bay's population had dropped 3.9 per cent in 2016 from 53,651 in 2011. North Bay is 42nd in population in the province.
In 2021, Thunder Bay's population rose 0.9 per cent to 108,843 up from 107,909. In 2016, population dropped 0.4 per cent from 108,359 in 2011. Thunder Bay is the 25th largest city by population in Ontario.
As recently as 2018, a consultant's report to its municipal council read, "Greater Sudbury stands out as the only major urban area in northern Ontario with a growing population. By contrast, Thunder Bay, Sault Ste. Marie, Timmins and North Bay have all either experienced no increase or a declining population since 2001."
While some of the northern cities are reversing that trend, the Statistics Canada data released earlier this month shows Sault Ste. Marie and Timmins both continue to decline in population.
Sault Ste. Marie recorded the biggest decline of the five northern centres, down 1.8 per cent to 72,051 in 2021 from 73,368 in 2016. The city's population also dropped 2.4 per cent in 2016 from 75,141 in 2011. Sault Ste. Marie ranks 35th by population in the province.
Timmins, the least populated of the five centres, saw its population shrink to 41,145 in 2021, down 1.5 per cent from 2016's 41,788. This is an improvement over the 3.2 per cent drop in 2016, down from 43,165 in 2011. Timmins is 53rd in Ontario by population rank.
None of the five large urban centres in northern Ontario approached 2021's 5.8 per cent population increase in Ontario or the average national population growth of 5.2 per cent.
According to Statistics Canada, from 2016 to 2021, the population declined in 121 of the 737 Canadian municipalities with at least 5,000 inhabitants, or about 16 per cent or one in six, down from an 18 per cent share of municipalities with population declines from 2011 to 2016.
Some of that shift, according to its analysis is due to the rapid shift toward remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing urban dwellers to seek more affordable housing markets in suburban or rural areas.
See: In a pandemic year, north's property value grows by hundreds of millions
What remains to be seen is whether this shift continues to contribute to positive rural population growth post-pandemic. Since March 2020, 20–40 per cent of the labour force has been engaged in remote work, well up from 5.7 per cent in February 2020, just before the pandemic.
In North Bay, Mayor Al McDonald earned re-election on a growth platform and he and the local council remain active in recruiting people from larger centres with promises of clean air and lakes — along with increased spending power — as enticements to consider a change.
And: North Bay's competition. Sudbury looks to attract GTA professionals with 'Hit Refresh' initiative
On the heels of a record year for building, North Bay is also experiencing a real estate boom above and beyond the record provincial levels. The skyrocketing home prices have left some wondering if local, potential homebuyers will be priced out of the market for the foreseeable future.
McDonald, who is active on social media channels promoting the city and sharing good news stories remains positive about the local housing situation:
"North Bay sees the highest increase in house prices in Ontario. If you own a home in North Bay that is outstanding news. First-time homebuyers trying to buy into the market (obviously not as good) but shows that investing in real estate usually is a wise investment as a principal residence over the long term," he wrote.
See also: Mayor sees positives in population bump: 'More work to do'
McDonald says there are good-paying, full-time jobs available and the growth strategy is working.
"Our current homeowners are benefiting. Those retiring and making the move to downsize will benefit as well. Your home is usually the biggest investment people will make. Here it is paying off in increased equity for our citizens," he writes. "Our local homeowners saw on average a 46 per cent increase in the value of their homes. That is great news for them."
The Mayor adds despite the growth, North Bay does not rank among the most expensive places to live in Ontario, noting the median price for a house in Ontario is 998,000 and the median in North Bay is 400,000.
"Those we are trying to attract and bring back our youth to grow our city, this market is still extremely affordable and offers great value for everyone including our citizens. Our local businesses and industry are telling us they need employees. We would like to see our youth stay or return after their post-secondary education is complete."
McDonald acknowledges there is more work to be done.
"We need to continue to encourage our home builders to build more homes. I do know they are going as fast as they can. We need more inventory to help balance the market."
