LETTER: Slash Immigration, but who will build the homes?

To the editor:

A Leger poll released in late 2023 suggested that ¾ of Canadians believe that immigrants are contributing to the ongoing housing crisis; while a little over half of Canadians believe that the current federal government’s policies will admit too many immigrants into the country.

But the pathway to affordable housing is far more convoluted than the Poilievre campaign would have you believe. With a platform that is primarily built on immigration and housing reform, it is evident that the conservative party has identified these issues as the most pressing among their voter base. But is the conservative plan a viable policy platform? Or naïve to the constrictive externalities that surround the issue.

The Poilievre conservatives plan to scale back regulatory oversight into new construction in order to expedite the building of new homes for Canadians. The policy seeks to increase municipalities' current construction numbers by 15% on an annual compounding basis.

However, its plan to achieve this seemingly provides far more sticks than carrots for municipalities and lofty expectations considering the current pace and labour shortage constraints. With the proposed penalties for non-compliance consisting of the withholding of federal funding equivalent to the percentage of a municipality’s shortfall; And bonuses for any municipality capable of exceeding these impractical targets.

And what does this look like in real terms?

At the provincial level, the Ontario government has pledged to construct 1.5 million homes over the next decade, while recent historical data shows real construction at a little under 100,000 units over the previous decade. And major contractors across the province are turning away work because they simply do not have the labour resources to fulfill further commitments.

The government of Ontario speculates it would still require 100,000 additional workers to meet its current targets. Is the threat of withheld federal dollars and a slash to new immigration and temporary workers the right incentive structure for an already precarious situation at the ground level?

The reality of the situation is that Canada cannot pursue meaningful development in our housing sector without an immediate injection of candidates into the labour pool in relevant vocations. And this reality must be confronted when dictating Canada’s immigration and housing policy moving forward.

The conservative party currently possesses a roughly 20-point lead in most recent election polling data. And with the same above-mentioned Leger poll suggesting that 70% of conservative voters believe current immigration levels are too high, it will rest with Poilievre to walk the tight rope between populist interest and material policy considerations as we as a nation contend with the ongoing cost of living crisis.

Cade Cardinal