The RNIP numbers are in, and they are impressive.
According to an article by BayToday’s Stu Campaigne since the Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot launched in August 2020, North Bay and the area have received 4,113 applications for permanent residence, and processed 638 community recommendations, representing 844 newcomers.
As of May 2024, 294 who received a community recommendation have received permanent resident status through Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. The process, despite government claims, is not fast.
That is almost 1,000 people added to the population. With a new program with a new name, the Rural Community Immigration Pilot (RCIP) being launched this fall as a new five-year pilot, expect our population to continue to grow.
The North Bay & District Chamber of Commerce, working in concert with the city’s economic development department, has to re-apply by July 2 to be part of the new program. The only way communities already in the current pilot will not be part of the new one is if they decided not to apply or they really screwed up their application. We can expect neither of those scenarios in North Bay.
In the early days of RNIP fast food and retail jobs were being accepted for community recommendations, but, no longer. The project website at www.northbayrnip.ca notes fast food, retail, and security positions no longer qualify. Low-skilled jobs such as housekeeping and cleaners are not qualifying lately as well.
The RNIP decision-makers are concentrating on higher National Occupation Classification (NOC) codes to fill higher-level positions local employers cannot fill with Canadian citizens or permanent residents. I have seen engineers, accountants, IT professionals, health care workers, pharmacy assistants, dental assistants and many more occupations earn their community recommendations.
The pharmacy assistants and dental assistants were pharmacists and dentists in their home countries, and have to requalify in Canada.
The jobs are there, and that is what is driving the pilot program.
A report this month by Bank of Montreal economists Douglas Porter and Scott Anderson, quoted in a Globe and Mail column by Doug Saunders, author of Maximum Canada—Toward a Country of 100 Million, says, as we all know, that Canada’s workforce is aging and shrinking. It is shrinking enough to make Ottawa’s target of 500,000 new permanent residents per year beneficial.
The spike we had in temporary foreign workers and international students has ended, and the majority of new permanent residents this year and next will come from that spike. It doesn’t mean we will see 500,000 new people this year and next. The majority are already here.
The BMO economists conclude that the reason Canada has not yet seen the economic growth and per capita growth the U.S. has seen is almost entirely the result of higher consumer debt levels in Canada, produced mainly by mortgage rate hikes.
Due to strong population growth and interest rate cuts, they forecast Canadian growth rates will be on par with U.S. rates in 2025.
Saunders notes that if we look at history when Canada had even larger surges in immigration in the 1910s and 1950s, there was a lag period of both housing shortages and slower per capita growth before the long-term economic benefits of population growth kicked in.
The thesis of his column was to pay attention to the demand side, not the supply side. When there is demand, (available employment) supply (immigration) increases. When there is no demand, Canada is a much less desirable immigration destination.
RCIP will keep newcomers coming to North Bay and area. A number of newcomers I have talked to have plans to start their own business while working for an employer. Others already have, and have created new employment opportunities.
I realize that as soon as this column is posted the naysayers will have their say. Have at it, folks.
I am reminded of an interview I did with Stacie Fiddler of the Labour Market Group a number of years ago. Asked about her views on immigration, her response was memorable.
“The alternative is to wither and die.”
Editor’s Note: Don Curry is a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant living in North Bay, and a member of Bay Today’s community advisory committee.
